Individuals increasingly use multiple modes of transportation to complete their journey goods and services are delivered to rather than fetched by consumers. Consumer mobility behavior is changing, leading to up to one out of ten cars sold in 2030 potentially being a shared vehicle and the subsequent rise of a market for fit-for-purpose mobility solutions.Ĭhanging consumer preferences, tightening regulation, and technological breakthroughs add up to a fundamental shift in individual mobility behavior. With established markets slowing in growth, however, growth will continue to rely on emerging economies, particularly China, while product-mix differences will explain different development of revenues.
#AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY THREAT OF NEW ENTRANTS DRIVER#
The remaining driver of growth in global car sales is the overall positive macroeconomic development, including the rise of the global consumer middle class. New mobility services may result in a decline of private-vehicle sales, but this decline is likely to be offset by increased sales in shared vehicles that need to be replaced more often due to higher utilization and related wear and tear. This drop will be largely driven by macroeconomic factors and the rise of new mobility services such as car sharing and e-hailing.Ī detailed analysis suggests that dense areas with a large, established vehicle base are fertile ground for these new mobility services, and many cities and suburbs of Europe and North America fit this profile. Overall global car sales will continue to grow, but the annual growth rate is expected to drop from the 3.6 percent over the last five years to around 2 percent by 2030.
Despite a shift toward shared mobility, vehicle unit sales will continue to grow, but likely at a lower rate of about 2 percent per year. Ten ways autonomous driving could redefine the automotive worldĢ. This could create up to $1.5 trillion-or 30 percent more-in additional revenue potential in 2030, compared with about $5.2 trillion from traditional car sales and aftermarket products/services, up by 50 percent from about $3.5 trillion in 2015 (Exhibit 1). The automotive revenue pool will significantly increase and diversify toward on-demand mobility services and data-driven services. Driven by shared mobility, connectivity services, and feature upgrades, new business models could expand automotive revenue pools by about 30 percent, adding up to $1.5 trillion. They are certainly not deterministic in nature but should help industry players better prepare for the uncertainty by discussing potential future states. The forecasts should thus be interpreted as a projection of the most probable assumptions across all four trends, based on our current understanding. This study aims to make the imminent changes more tangible. To that end, our eight key perspectives on the “2030 automotive revolution” are aimed at providing scenarios concerning what kind of changes are coming and how they will affect traditional vehicle manufacturers and suppliers, potential new players, regulators, consumers, markets, and the automotive value chain. Given the widespread understanding that game-changing disruption is already on the horizon, there is still no integrated perspective on how the industry will look in 10 to 15 years as a result of these trends. Most industry players and experts agree that the four trends will reinforce and accelerate one another, and that the automotive industry is ripe for disruption.
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